Saturday, April 4 — The Week in Review

Your money, explained like I'm family.

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The Debase Brief — Saturday Deep Dive — 2026-04-04

The Debase Brief

Saturday Deep Dive
March 29 – April 04, 2026 Weekend Edition
BTC
$67,096
+0.7%
Gold
$4,655
+0.1%
CPI (YoY)
2.4%
↓ 0.3pp
M2
Data unavailable
+N/A% YoY
Purchasing Power Lost
Data unavailable
Your dollar buys less every year. Here's how much.

Saturday, April 4 — The Week in Review

Written by Unc LASTE · Your money, explained like I'm family

Another week of watching your money work against you. The war in the Middle East entered its sixth week, and the Strait of Hormuz — that narrow waterway you never thought about before — stayed closed. Turns out that little strip of water carries a fifth of the world's oil. When it shuts, everything gets more expensive.

You felt it at the pump this week. That fill-up that used to sting now really hurts. The oil traders are nervous, and when oil traders get nervous, you pay more for everything. Not just gas. The truck that brings food to your grocery store runs on diesel. The plastic in everything you buy comes from petroleum. Even that Amazon delivery — yeah, that costs more to get to your door now.

The President promised "extremely hard" strikes in the next few weeks. The market heard that and did what markets do when wars escalate — they price in chaos. Gold jumped. Bonds wobbled. And Bitcoin? Bitcoin did that thing where it ignores the noise and keeps building blocks every ten minutes.

Here's what most people missed while watching war footage: The money printer kept running. They don't announce it anymore. They just do it. More dollars chasing the same amount of stuff, except now there's less stuff because ships can't get through the Strait. This is the setup for the kind of inflation that makes your parents' stories about the seventies sound quaint.

The Federal Reserve met this week. They used a lot of words to say nothing. They're "monitoring the situation." They're "ready to act." What they're really doing is hoping the war ends before they have to choose between fighting inflation and keeping the economy running. Spoiler: they'll choose the economy. They always do. Which means more money printing dressed up in fancy terms.

REALITY CHECK

Your government spent more this week than it took in. Again. The war gave them cover to do it. "Emergency spending," they call it. That debt doesn't disappear. It gets paid through inflation — by you, slowly, every time you buy anything.

The smart money moved this week. Quietly. While everyone argued about the war on social media, big players shifted into hard assets. Real estate in stable areas. Commodities. Bitcoin. Things the government can't print more of. They're not panicking. They're positioning.

You're probably wondering what to do. First, understand this isn't temporary. Wars end, but the money they printed doesn't go away. The debt they added doesn't vanish. The supply chains they broke take years to rebuild. Your purchasing power — that invisible force that determines whether you're getting ahead or falling behind — is under assault from multiple directions.

But here's the thing: You're reading this. Most people aren't. Most people will figure out what happened to their money in five years when they can't afford the things they used to buy. You're figuring it out now. That's your edge. Use it.

01
The Spark
"Inflation is the skunk at the party. It's been coming down, but it seems to maybe have leveled off around 3%."
Jamie Dimon · Bloomberg · 2026-03-12
Mainstream Media
Dimon's right to be cautiously optimistic. We've come so far from the peak, and leveling off around here isn't the disaster some make it out to be. The Fed's done remarkable work getting us this far without breaking anything major. A little persistence at this level just means we need patience while the last sticky prices adjust.
Wall Street
Patience is expensive when you're managing billions. The street knows what "leveling off" really means — the easy wins are behind us. Housing costs won't budge, services keep climbing, and now we've got oil spiking from this Hormuz situation. The Fed's trapped between inflation that won't die and an economy they can't afford to kill.
The Contrarian Bitcoiner
You're both dancing around what actually happened. They printed unprecedented amounts, told you it was temporary, and now act surprised it stuck around. "Leveling off" is their way of admitting they can't fix what they broke without breaking something else. Your grocery bill knows the truth — this isn't victory, it's surrender. They're just hoping you get used to everything costing more forever.
02
The Spark
"Absolutely not."
Treasury Secretary Bessent · Sky News · 2026-03-12
Mainstream Media
Secretary Bessent is being responsible here. Creating a government Bitcoin reserve would legitimize speculation and send the wrong message about our commitment to the dollar. We need steady hands managing our economy, not radical experiments that could destabilize everything we've built.
Wall Street
The Treasury's position makes sense institutionally, but they're fighting yesterday's war. Major corporations are already adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The government saying "absolutely not" while the private sector moves ahead creates a disconnect that markets will eventually force them to reconcile.
The Contrarian Bitcoiner
They said "absolutely not" to leaving the gold standard too. Then Nixon changed his mind over a weekend. When the Strait stays closed and oil prices keep climbing, when the printer runs overtime to pay for another crisis, that "absolutely not" will quietly become "we're exploring options." The math doesn't care about their timeline. 21 million doesn't negotiate.

Watch oil prices and your gas tank this week — the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and Trump's talking about harder strikes in the next few weeks. Every headline from the Middle East shows up at your pump first, then spreads through everything else you buy.

Unc's Take

They're all right, and they're all missing the point. Yes, the government's printing. Yes, the strait matters. Yes, Bitcoin keeps chugging. But here's what I see: every crisis, every closed waterway, every new trillion they print — it's all teaching the same lesson. The old system is fragile, the new one is being born, and you're lucky enough to be awake while it happens.

Choose Your Lens

Same data. Your reality.

Retiree / Fixed Income

If you're living on a fixed income, you already know the official inflation numbers are a joke, your heating bill and grocery receipts tell the real story. While everyone else can chase raises or switch jobs, you're stuck watching your careful planning get eaten away by forces you can't control, but understanding that this isn't your fault and that millions are in the same boat means you can stop second-guessing every purchase and start having honest conversations with your family about what's really happening.

Small Business Owner

If you run a small business, you're watching your delivery costs climb while your customers get more careful with their spending. Every supplier quote comes in higher than the last one, but raising your prices means losing the regulars who've kept you afloat.

The smart move is locking in fuel contracts now before this gets worse, and having honest conversations with your best customers about what's coming, they'll appreciate the heads up, and you'll keep their loyalty when everyone else starts surprising them with price hikes.

Real Estate

If you're in real estate, you're watching buyers pull back as their monthly budgets get squeezed by higher gas prices and everything else that follows oil up. The same money that used to qualify for a decent house now gets them a compromise, and they know it.

But here's what they don't see yet: when everything gets more expensive, the house becomes the hedge. The family that understands this moves now, before the next wave hits.

Equities / Investor

If you're watching your portfolio right now, you're seeing the same story play out that always happens when oil spikes, energy stocks surge while everything else struggles to keep up. The market hates uncertainty more than bad news, and a closed shipping lane is uncertainty on steroids.

But here's what the panic sellers miss: supply shocks create opportunities. The companies with pricing power will pass these costs through and come out stronger, while the weak ones will get exposed.

Student / Young Professional

If you're grinding through entry-level work or finishing your degree, you're watching every dollar while the world makes each one worth less. That gas money eating into your weekend plans isn't just bad luck, it's what happens when distant conflicts hit your local pump, and nobody at work is explaining why your paycheck feels smaller even though the number stayed the same.

Beginner / I'm New Here

If you're just starting to notice that your paycheck doesn't go as far as it used to, you're not imagining it. When wars shut down shipping routes halfway around the world, the cost shows up in your gas tank first, then everywhere else.

Start watching what happens to prices when the news gets scary, once you see the pattern, you can plan for it instead of getting surprised by it.

Expat / Global

If you're living abroad and earning in one currency while spending in another, you're watching this oil crisis hit you twice, once at the local pump, once when you convert your money. Your advantage is you already see what most people miss: how connected everything is, how a blocked shipping lane halfway around the world changes the price of your morning coffee in Bangkok or Berlin.

The Number
$-184,341
Added to the national debt per second yesterday